Great Ones,

If you’re still chasing after AI and AI accessories, like Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO or Nvidia’s $150 buyback, I’m gonna need you to have a seat right over there…

Wait! We didn’t do anything Hank Hansen! Or is it Chris Hill? I’m so confused.

I get it. Every money, media, and government outlet is practically screaming at you to “Get Out There And Buy! Buy! Buy!” AI like we’re crawling around some kind of televised dungeon, or something.

Mr. Great Stuff, what are you talking about? Just think of the New Achievements!

New achievements?

Do you mean Anthropic announcing a more-than $2 trillion initial public offering (IPO)? The same Anthropic that lost $42 billion in fiscal 2025? The same Anthropic that saw operating losses nearly double to $8.06 billion in the same fiscal year?

Or do you mean Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) adding $150 billion to its stock buyback plan? The same Nvidia that was already buying back $80 billion in stock? The same Nvidia that has $32.4 billion in debt and a $1 trillion order backlog?

NEW ACHIEVEMENT! You’re the Reason Why Mr. Great Stuff Drinks.

Guys, what are we doing?

A $2 trillion valuation for a company that is not only not profitable, but posts massive losses? And a supposed leading technological innovator spending $150 billion more on things not technological or innovative?

Have we forgotten that fundamentals matter?

Or are we so dazzled by short-term bouncing dollar signs that we fail to look past industry buzz words such as "physical AI” and pithy CEO statements like, “We are the world’s first and only growth value stock. People are trying to figure out which one we are. We are both.”

But dollar signs buy me tendies!

Sigh… I can see I’ve been gone too long. It’s time to set y’all straight.

Right after this word from today’s sponsor:

Chasing the next hot stock can be exhausting, and it rarely builds wealth the way investors expect. The strongest long-term portfolios are often anchored by durable, blue-chip businesses designed to withstand recessions, inflation and shifting market leadership.

MarketBeat’s free 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever report identifies companies across technology, retail, consumer staples, healthcare, networking, sporting goods and utilities. Each offers its own mix of stability, income, growth and staying power.

These are not speculative names built around the latest headline. They are established businesses selected for investors who would rather own quality companies for years than constantly chase the market.

Get your complimentary copy and see all seven names today.

Get the Free Report

Let’s start with the fundamentals.

In Anthropic's IPO prospectus, the company only outlines its $2-trillion plus planned offering. Included in the prospectus are these wonderful little gems from fiscal 2025:

Because it can, and because it is worse than just 25% of revenue from two companies — Anthropic says those two companies are not locked in to long-term deals.

Furthermore, once you look at who Anthropic's biggest customers are, you start to see even more to be concerned with.

For instance, The New York Times reported that Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is one of Anthropic’s biggest customers. In fact, Meta itself projected it could spend $10 billion annually with Anthropic.

But didn’t Meta just release Muse AI in direct competition with Anthropic?

Why yes, Great Ones, it did.

And with Meta most likely not on a long-term contract with Anthropic, how do y’all see this playing out? I think “projected” is going to come back to bite Anthropic hard here.

Among the other top three big spenders with Anthropic is IBM (NYSE: IBM) –ol’ Big Blue itself, according to The Wall Street Journal. Now, IBM is an unbelievably huge player in both the AI and quantum computing markets.

Which is to say that even as it is using Anthropic’s AI, it is developing its own internal AI, likely designed to run on quantum-enabled data centers. In other words, IBM is likely to surpass Anthropic in the AI market with its own offerings very soon.

The Journal also reports that Cognizant Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: CTSH) is also one of Anthropic’s biggest customers. Cognizant uses AI models from Anthropic, and all of its competitors, to provide business solutions and intelligence.

Honestly, Cognizant is in good shape as long as AI and business industry capital expenditures (CapEx) remains strong.

That said, how y’all feeling about economic growth these days?

Think it’ll be enough to hit $31.6 trillion in AI CapEx by 2050?

I don’t either.

And with the yield on the 10-year T-bill jumping over 5.25% today … more industry debt spending would be a recipe for disaster that could finally pop the AI bubble.

So, Anthropic’s main customers — making up 25% of all revenue — are also among its biggest competitors. It’s still losing 10s of billions of dollars after losing $42 billion in 2025. AND it wants to spend $518 billion more dollars on AI infrastructure?

Where’s the $2-trillion valuation justification? Where, I say?

Agreed. Putting it simply:

Don’t Buy The Anthropic IPO Hype!

So, y’all are probably wondering how Nvidia –the company with $1 trillion in backlogged AI chip orders — gets toppled by Anthropic's IPO.

Yeah, that seems like a stretch, even for you, Mr. Great Stuff.

What can I say? I like big claims and I cannot lie.

Okay, stay with me here…

Well, if we’re spending trillions we must be making quadrillions, right?

Riiight… About that.

According to The Economist, the global artificial intelligence economy has generated revenue of just $150 billion to $229 billion, annualized.

Meanwhile, the people over at Bain & Co. ran the numbers and found that the AI industry needs $6 trillion in annual revenue to justify current CapEx spending.

It seems like we’re about 381% short on revenue there, Great Ones.

I’m still not seeing how stupid Anthropic will take down king Nvidia!

Okay, here’s a little Econ 101 for you:

If a business is spending way more of a product than that product is generating in income, what does that business do?

They stop making that product? But they won’t stop making AI!

You’re right. They won’t stop making AI.

Just like they didn’t stop making Internet websites after the 2000 Dotcom Crash.

Just like they didn’t stop making houses or selling mortgages after the 2008 financial collapse and housing crisis.

But Pets.com, Countrywide and a lot of their respective peers don’t exist any more, do they?

Now, I’m not saying that Nvidia won’t exist after the AI bubble pops. But that $1 trillion order backlog could take a massive hit as companies, unable to get decent loan terms anymore, quit or heavily restrict spending.

And, I don’t know if you know this or not, but Nvidia has priced that $1 trillion backlog into its forward earnings and revenue projections. The problem is that none of that $1 trillion has been paid for.

Sure, Nvidia has legally binding contracts and purchasing commitments to fall back on, but ask investors and creditors from 2000 and 2008 how well those legally binding contracts worked out for them.

Instead of using the $230 billion ($150B new + $80B old) on planned stock buybacks, they could have used it for capacity buildout to meet demand, since they are so woefully behind, helping to convert some of that $1 trillion into revenue before things get bad.

They could have used it for R&D to further cement their perch at the top of the AI semiconductor technology sector. They could have held it in reserve or invested it so that when the AI bubble bursts they have more cash on hand to buy rivals and grow from the ashes.

But no. Nvidia repurchased its own shares instead, just so CEO Jensen Huang could brag about how his company is a never-before-seen unicorn on Wall Street: a “growth value stock.”

That quote is hype. The $150 billion buyback is hype. Huang is neck deep in the hype right now. He’s dancing to keep investors happy over the short term, when he should be worrying about his company’s long-term ability to make it through what’s coming…

This is why I despise stock buybacks. They provide nothing for the company, and are instead a financial drag on Nvidia’s bottom line just to appease and make a show of investor relations. They also used to be illegal. Just sayin’..

So, you recommend selling Nvidia? That’s ballsy.

I’m NOT recommending selling Nvidia.

But I’m also definitely NOT recommending buying it either.

I recommend you take profits on your Nvidia holdings. And do it soon.

Leave part of your position alone for exposure, just in case. But don’t keep risking profits or investment capital over pithy quotes and hype.

Look around at the AI market right now.

Really, look around.

Some CEO’s are begging for government intervention — likely positioning themselves for government bailouts. Others, notably in the AI infrastructure sector, are being nearly crushed by massive debt loads.

Thank you once again, Great Ones, for stopping by.

I didn’t get to many lyrics today, but here’s today’s Greater Stuff soundtrack:

Acting like a robot.
Its metal brain corrodes…

Still have questions?

I know you do: Drop me a line and ask!

Remember, Greater Stuff doesn’t exist without your help and support!

Like, share, and comment! Help me reach all the OG Great Ones and build this community once again! 

And if you have a stock or investing idea you’d like to see Great Stuff cover, let us know at: [email protected]. 

Looking for more? Check out the Greater Stuff deets here:

Until next time, stay Great!​

​Joseph Hargett

Editor, Greater Stuff

Founder, Greater Stuff Publishing LLC

The International Quant Championship (IQC) is one of the world's largest quantitative research competitions, bringing together participants from across the globe to test ideas, develop skills and engage with quantitative thinking.

Discover IQC and join a global community exploring quantitative research.

Learn more about WorldQuant BRAIN®

All content published by Greater Stuff Publishing LLC is for informational and educational purposes only and constitutes impersonal financial commentary. It does not constitute personalized financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Investing in securities and options trading involves significant risk, including the potential loss of your invested capital. Greater Stuff Publishing LLC is not a registered financial advisor or broker-dealer. All trading and investment decisions are your sole responsibility based on your personal financial situation and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.